SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. — If Lizzie Grubman ends up spending 30 days in the county klink, as the New York tabloids insist she will, the celebrity publicist would probably miss her smokes most of all.

Tobacco is taboo and Grubman's money is meaningless at the Suffolk County Jail, which one of Grubman's lawyers toured last month in anticipation of a possible plea bargain.

A cigarette was the second thing the 31-year-old Grubman asked for July 7, 2001, after backing a new Mercedes-Benz into a crowd of people straining behind a rope to get into one of the trendy Hamptons nightclubs where Grubman likes her up-and-coming clients to be seen.

But even before her need for nicotine, legal representation topped Grubman's requests when cops caught up to her 6 miles away and two hours later at the home of ex-beau Andrew Sasson. Witnesses were accusing Grubman, the daughter of powerhouse New York lawyer Allen Grubman, of hurling an expletive and the phrase "white trash" before her father's $70,000 sports utility vehicle plowed into a crowd waiting to get into Conscience Point Inn.

The broken bones, scrapes and cuts suffered by some of the 16 people injured in the mishap were bad enough, but white trash? For Grubman to suggest that she was better than others who wanted only to hang with the pretty people that night last summer, well, that was adding insult to injury.

The victims individually are suing Grubman, her father and Conscience Point for more than $100 million. Insurance companies will either settle or litigate the claims, but a year after the crash Lizzie Grubman has yet to settle that stubborn 26-count criminal indictment.

If Grubman does not take a deal, her trial will be held in this Riverhead courthouse.

The official line coming from Grubman's lawyers and the prosecutor's office is that there is no agreement yet on a negotiated plea and that the case could go to trial. But given the facts and emotions of the case, privately both sides have leaked in the past that it is just a matter now of what Grubman would cop to and how much time she can stomach in a one-star county accommodation. If convicted of second-degree assault, Grubman could face about eight and a half years.

Grubman, who now avoids the same press pool that helped her build Lizzie Grubman Public Relations beginning in 1996, has a date with Suffolk County Court Judge John Mullin in his chambers in Riverhead on later this month. Chaperoning will be high-profile defense attorney Stephen Scaring, lesser-known but well-regarded defense lawyer Edward Burke Jr., and Nassau County prosecutor Joy Watson.

Watson told Courttv.com that until a defendant actually mouths the phrase "guilty," the case is presumed to be going to trial. Scaring said Tuesday that he is prepared for Mullin to pick a date for the start of jury selection July 18. "The case is going to be set down for trial on the 18th. That's where it is at," Scaring said. "I'm not going to comment on any discussions we have had."

Of course, Scaring could be posturing. There has been lots of that in the Grubman in the case since she was indicted Sept. 12. Cases are often settled after jury selection begins, but defendants tend to get the best deals when they do not put the state through the time and expense of bringing a case to trial.

When the Long Island and New York papers began reporting leaks about a deal to give Grubman 30 days, five years' probation and community service, some in very conservative Suffolk County objected. The papers had already been writing about special treatment police gave Grubman, who did not take a Breathalyzer test and who was allowed to surrender at a police station with a lawyer after having a few hours to pull herself together.

"The law needs to be respected if America is to survive as the great country it once was," Long Islander Grace Hensinger wrote to Mullin in April. "Each decision ending in a plea bargain decays our foundation and our rights under the law."

Robert Pattison, a Yale- and Columbia-educated English professor at Southampton College, told Courttv.com that something about the plea bargain floated in the press struck him the wrong way, prompting him to write to Mullin in May.

"This is eminently a case that should go to a jury," Pattison wrote. "The plea bargain as outlined in the press would be an announcement that justice in Suffolk County is for sale, and that equal treatment under the law is a sham."

Burke, the defense lawyer, and Watson, the prosecutor assigned to the case, refused to discuss negotiations or reports that the judge wants Grubman to agree to a plea or a trial date when the players gather in his chambers July 18.

"I don't know what the letters are complaining about. There is no plea agreement," Watson said.

Regardless of how the criminal case plays out, Grubman has been paying a personal price since the day of the crash. But just how much is not clear. She and business partner Peggy Siegal parted company in December, but Grubman's company Web site gives the impression that it's business as usual for the woman dubbed "Super-flak" by the New York columnists.

Grubman has a knack for organizing celebrity parties at hot spots like Conscience Point, which is still listed as a client on her Web site. The firm's impressive list of current or former clients includes rapper Jay-Z, pop idol Britney Spears and music producer Quincy Jones.

After the accident, Grubman was very concerned about the impact the "Horror in the Hamptons," as the New York Post called it, would have on business. Before all the victims were even released from the hospital, Grubman tapped damage-control expert Howard Rubenstein to spread the word that the incident was an accident and that Grubman was truly sorry.

Rubenstein told Courttv.com last month that he no longer represents Grubman and was in no position to comment about the legal and public relations jam she still finds herself in nearly a year after the crash.

Grubman apparently realized that she was spinning her wheels by trying to spin a story that has no heroes, said Fraser Seitel, a public relations professional who writes a weekly Internet column on the industry.

"I think it is wise. Hers is a bad story and when you are in the middle of a bad story, the overriding challenge is to get it out of the press," Seitel told Courttv.com. "You can't spin this story. The best PR advice she can get in my view is to keep her mouth shut and decide against trying to upgrade her image."

Noting that Martha Stewart seems to be the reigning celebrity villainess, Seitel thinks Grubman will probably take her lumps in court, settle the civil lawsuits and try to move on with her life and career as best she can.

"America is a forgiving nation, apropos Monica Lewinsky, Bill Clinton, Latrell Sprewell and Pee Wee Herman," Seitel said. "It depends on Lizzie's actions after this. Even the New York Post gives up the ghost after awhile."